Thursday, November 10, 2016

The Coming Trump Administration

Now that we have had time to adjust to the fact of a Trump victory, it’s time to look forward to the coming Trump presidency and try to analyze what a Trump administration will mean.  We will look at the following areas in no particular order. 

1. Court Nominees

Job one is the nomination to fill Antonin Scalia seat on the supreme court. Look for a conservative that is more Kennedy than Scalia. That is sure for disappoint some rabid conservatives but Trump’s instincts are far more moderate than conservative.

Looking down the road, Ginsburg’s and Beyer’s seat will probably also open up during a Trump presidency.  Trump will have an opportunity to shape the court for the next generation.

Of equal importance are nominees to the various inferior courts in the federal system.  There are hundreds of vacancies to fill so Trump should keep the Senate fairly busy for the next few years filling these posts. 

2. The Repeal and Replacement of Obamacare 

It goes without saying that President Obama’s signature achievement will not last the first year of the Trump administration. It is one of the worst, most unpopular pieces of legislation ever devised by the Democrats.  

What form the replacement will take is harder to say. The one thing in Obamacare that would be kept is coverage for pre-existing conditions. However, that coverage must involve shared risk polls and/or other fiscally sound techniques to implement. 

Other features are the ability to sell health insurance across state lines, major medical coverage only for younger, healthier, single adults and other free-market reforms that will reduce the cost of insurance while maintaining quality healthcare. 

3. No big, magnificent wall on the southern border but stricter enforcement of immigration laws, more strict vetting of immigrants and a larger budget to support both. 

Suffice to say the encouragement to illegally immigrate to the United States ends with the Trump administration.  While it is doubtful Trump will engage in mass deportations, it is a certainty that illegal immigrants will never become citizens or be allowed to vote.  Nor will sanctuary cities be tolerated under a Trump administration. 

And yes, the term illegal immigrant will be use because illegal immigrants enter the country in violation of the law. 

4. Free Trade and Globalism is on Hold  

It goes without saying that TPP is dead and other free trade pacts will be under review. The primary priority with this is to return high paying jobs back the US.

5. Tax policies.

Will go hand in a hand with trade policies to encourage companies to bring capital and jobs back to the United States. 

6. Climate Change

Say sayonara to the odious climate change policies and treaties pushed by the liberals. Look for federal lands to be opened to energy exploration and pipeline projects to go forward.  

7. Domestic Social Policy

You will see a rollback of the most odious Title IX interpretations by the Obama administration. 

8. Infrastructure Spending

Trump likes to build things. See a large increase in infrastructure spending. 

9. Military Spending

Look for an increase in the military budget. 

10. VA Administration Reform

Finally, someone who will really reform the VA Administration.  Look for a privatize insurance plan to cover most veterans’ health needs while the current VA hospital system concentrates are war and trauma related specifies. 

11. Entitlement spending will not be touched, deficits explode.

Trump has repeatedly said that he will not touch social security Medicare and other entitlements. Without addressing these spending issues the deficit will explode.  

12.  End to the Regulation Regime

Trump will take his pen and his phone to roll back every regulation Obama put into effect.  

13. What will happen to Hillary Clinton?


You can’t keep calling her crooked Hillary for 18 months and then not doing anything about it. Since the whole process would stink of politics, look for Trump to appoint an independent counsel. 

2 comments:

Indy Voter said...

Not bad predictions. I'm skeptical that Trump will get spending increases through a "no new debt, no new revenue" Republican majority, but he may bully enough of them into accepting larger deficits to get spending increased.

Commonsense said...

Trump is sure to disappoint his most rabid supporters on immigration.

There are a whole lot of fiscal and environmental concerns in actually building a wall.

Not to mention whether it is cost effective or not.

The great wall of China looks magnificent from space but it ultimately failed to keep the Mongols out.