Sunday, April 30, 2017

Watch Florida 27 In 2018

This is Rep Ileana Ros-Lehtinen's (R) district and she just announced her retirement which means the seat is going to be open in 2018. 

However, I suspect the primary reason for her retirement was the court ordered redrawing of her district lines. The district used to extend down to the southeastern coast of Miami-Dade county from Hialeah, and Little Havana to Homestead. It also included the exclusive Key Biscayne neighborhood off the port of Miami. With the new lines, the district loses Homestead and it's mostly Republican constituency and pick up some surrounding Democrat neighborhoods in Miami. 

In 2016 they re-elected Ros-Lehtinen by 9 points but the district went for Hillary Clinton by 10 points. 

Cook now Rates the District as D+5 and it should be an easy pickup for the Democrats in 2018. 

If not, then the Democrats will been in real trouble. 

4 comments:

Anonymous said...



i don't even try to predict or figure out florida anymore. from the panhandle to key west, the whole state seems to me to be too politically fickle to understand with any application of logic.

Commonsense said...

Florida is a microcosm for the country as a whole.

Which is why it will remain the swingingest of swing states.

Anonymous said...



indeed, but i wonder for how long. you guys 'enjoy' an ever increasing number of blue state public sector retirees who reliably vote 'D'. i'm curious as to how long it will take before those nanny-state tit suckers slide florida into a reliably 'D' category.

Commonsense said...

Good question. But I am not so much worried about those blue state public sectors employees retiring to Florida because, beside the weather, the chief reason to come to Florida is to avoid the high-tax consequences of the nanny state they originally voted for.

Amazing how it changes your political perspective when you already got your pile to protect.

I'm more worried about the migration from Puerto Rico. They reliably vote Democrat.