This analysis by Ed Morrissey at Hot Air makes a prescient point.
While the WaPo/ABC sample and poll results aren’t “dirty” or dishonest, the presentation seemed a bit misleading. Here’s the second paragraph:Following a month of selfinflicted [sic] controversies, the survey shows that support for Trump is plunging, including among fellow Republicans, propelling Democrat Hillary Clinton to a double-digit lead nationally. The poll reveals fresh doubts about Trump within his own party just three weeks before Republicans convene in Cleveland for their national convention.
Trump’s performance might have had some impact on those changes, but the Post neglected to note that the difference might also have come from a change in its sample composition. The previous poll, in which Hillary led 48/42, had a D+8 sample, while this one had a D+12 — and that might account for most of the change, with Hillary gaining three points and Trump losing the same amount. It claimed significant motion where perhaps little really existed.
In other words, the Clinton surge and Trump's decline can be all be traced back to a change in the sampling.
So if you adjust for the sample, there is no change in the race between Trump and Clinton since last month.
But that wouldn't make for a good story would it?
4 comments:
No, The Polls Aren’t Biased. Clinton Really Is Leading Trump
http://thefederalist.com/2016/06/24/no-the-polls-arent-biased-clinton-really-is-leading-trump/
rush made a good point today - since the new deal there really have been more registered democrats. i would agree that oversampling does exist, a good liberal can't resist the urge to cheat and all, but it seems logical that since uncle sugar started dolling out the fre shit, more folks identified as takers rather than makers.
where there has been any movement at all.... it's with Republicans moving back from Trump and into the undecided ranks. His average with Republicans has dropped from about 83-84 percent to about 79 percent. That's considerably lower than the 85 percent that Clinton is averaging with Democrats.
In the past ten polls where I have found cross tabs, Hillary only leads with Independents in two of them. On the flip side, Trump leads 10 and 9 percent in a couple of them... and overall is up about 3 points. Romney won them by 5.
The good news for Trump is that there is only about 5 percent of Democrats "undecided" at this point, where it's closer to 10 percent of Republican and 13 percent of Independents. I find it fairly hard to believe that Democrats who don't support Hillary at this point are going to find anything of substance to put them over the edge. But I believe there are a ton of conservatives who "want" to vote for Trump, and are looking for an excuse. I probably put myself into that category.
Common - I have a suggestion... go to your top right hand of your page - hit the "design" button. Should bring you to your Template page. There is a "customize" button, under the pic of your blog. Click on it and choose "adjust widths" - then you can make your side bar bigger so it doesn't cramp up like it does!
Thanks
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